@Article{MacedoAlmeSant:2018:MoDiEs,
author = "Macedo, Rodrigo de Campos and Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de and
Santos, Jo{\~a}o Roberto dos",
affiliation = "{Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat{\'{\i}}stica (IBGE)}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Modelagem din{\^a}mica espacial da expans{\~a}o da agricultura
em Campos Novos-SC",
journal = "Geosul",
year = "2018",
volume = "33",
number = "68",
pages = "260--285",
month = "set./dez.",
keywords = "modelagem din{\^a}mica espacial, altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es de
cobertura e uso da terra, expans{\~a}o agr{\'{\i}}cola.",
abstract = "Modelos computacionais baseados no paradigma de aut{\^o}matos
celulares foram concebidos recentemente para a
simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e cobertura da
terra, a exemplo de expans{\~a}o agr{\'{\i}}cola, processos de
desmatamento, crescimento urbano, entre outros. O objetivo do
presente trabalho foi o de aplicar e avaliar um modelo de
aut{\^o}matos celulares para simular mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e
cobertura da terra vinculadas {\`a} expans{\~a}o
agr{\'{\i}}cola no munic{\'{\i}}pio de Campos Novos/SC. As
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es foram conduzidas para o per{\'{\i}}odo de
2003 a 2012, sendo as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 2002 a 2008
retrospectivas, e as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 2009 a 2012
prospectivas. A aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo revelou que houve
expans{\~a}o agr{\'{\i}}cola durante o per{\'{\i}}odo
analisado, em detrimento de ambientes nativos, tais como matas e
campos serranos. Os resultados alcan{\c{c}}ados revelam o
potencial da aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dessa classe de modelos para o
estudo e a predi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}as de cobertura e
uso da terra. ABSTRACT: Digital models based on the paradigm of
cellular automata have been newly conceived for the simulation of
land cover and land use change, such as agricultural expansion,
deforestation processes, urban sprawl, amongst others. The aim of
this study is to run and evaluate a cellular automata-based model
designed for simulating land cover and land use change associated
with agricultural expansion in the municipality of Campos Novos,
Santa Catarina state, south of Brazil. The simulations were run
for the time span from 2003 to 2012, where the yearly simulations
from 2002 to 2008 are retrospective and those from 2009 to 2012
prospective ones. The conceived model revealed that there was
agricultural expansion during the analyzed period, with the
simultaneous suppression of native vegetation, such as woods and
high fields. The attained results demonstrate the promising
potential of this class of models for the analysis and forecast of
land cover and land use change.",
doi = "10.5007/2177-5230.2018v33n68p260",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2177-5230.2018v33n68p260",
issn = "0103-3964",
label = "lattes: 1861914973833506 2 MacedoAlmeSant:2018:MoDiEs",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "macedo_modelagem.pdf",
url = "https://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/geosul/article/view/2177-5230.2018v33n68p260",
urlaccessdate = "11 maio 2024"
}